A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
